Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Vitesse Arnhem 0 - 0 De Graafschap?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 13¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes87¢No13¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 12.7¢

-87% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,596

Combined PnL+$5.2K

No9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares10,045

Combined PnL$-8.2K

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Yesavg 5.3¢	$321.84	$5.2K	+$4.9K	99% 15884-134 (16018)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 95.7¢	$5.1K	$652.73	$-4.2K	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 11¢	$46.59	$369.12	+$322.53	77% 141-43 (184)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 95.7¢	$2.5K	$317.33	$-2.0K	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 92.1¢	$1.4K	$178.35	$-1.1K	50% 3041-2982 (6023)
dips.	Yesavg 96.9¢	$151	$131.6	-$14.78	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 90.4¢	$339.19	$48.59	-$288.73	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 89.2¢	$318.06	$45.88	-$272.18	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
RN1CTR	Noavg 95¢	$200	$26.1	-$164	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 89¢	$133.38	$19.3	-$114.08	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$32.54	$4.4	-$28.05	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yes	$4.38	$4.38	+$4.1	62% 35877-22304 (58181)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 96¢	$12.68	$1.63	-$10.52	47% 2157-2403 (4560)

looppau

Yes

Invested

$321.84

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

99%

15884-134 (16018)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$5,079.62

Value

$652.73

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$46.59

Value

$369.12

PnL

+$322.53

Record

77%

141-43 (184)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$2,469.46

Value

$317.33

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$1,366.7

Value

$178.35

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

3041-2982 (6023)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$151

Value

$131.6

PnL

-$14.78

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$339.19

Value

$48.59

PnL

-$288.73

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$318.06

Value

$45.88

PnL

-$272.18

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

RN1CTR

Invested

$200

Value

$26.1

PnL

-$164

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$133.38

Value

$19.3

PnL

-$114.08

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$32.54

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$28.05

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$4.1

Record

62%

35877-22304 (58181)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$10.52

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.2%

12.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$602.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

702.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.