Spread: Bills (-16.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (73%) · Bills at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Bills>99¢Ravens<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 73%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

41.2¢ → 99.1¢

+140% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills99%

Ravens1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,929

Combined PnL-$734.82

Ravens3 traders

Total Value$318.28

Total Shares1,652

Combined PnL-$576.41

Bills — 73%Ravens — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Billsavg 54.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$81.7	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
PR primm	Billsavg 31¢	$1.4K	$662.1	-$706.24	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
TO topdogbigboi	Billsavg 74.1¢	$354.76	$416.78	+$62.01	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
AM AmericaFirst1	Billsavg 33.5¢	$278.19	$286.32	+$8.13	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Ravensavg 59¢	$839.49	$263.08	-$576.41	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RN1<$100	Billsavg 64¢	$99.12	$92.62	-$6.5	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Billsavg 99.9¢	$66.93	$66.36	-$0.57	83% 2683-538 (3221)
US User7429<$100	Billsavg 95¢	$50.35	$51.68	+$1.32	55% 8417-6766 (15183)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Ravensavg 24¢	$27.6	$27.6	-$0	52% 804-728 (1532)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ravensavg 24¢	$27.6	$27.6	-$0	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 74¢	$37.04	$15.16	-$11.28	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

Anon455

Bills

Invested

$1,386.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$81.7

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

primm

Bills

Invested

$1,368.34

Value

$662.1

PnL

-$706.24

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

topdogbigboi

Bills

Invested

$354.76

Value

$416.78

PnL

+$62.01

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

AmericaFirst1

Bills

Invested

$278.19

Value

$286.32

PnL

+$8.13

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

UpTheBluesCTR

Ravens

Invested

$839.49

Value

$263.08

PnL

-$576.41

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RN1<$100

Bills

Invested

$99.12

Value

$92.62

PnL

-$6.5

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Dreamwire<$100

Bills

Invested

$66.93

Value

$66.36

PnL

-$0.57

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

User7429<$100

Bills

Invested

$50.35

Value

$51.68

PnL

+$1.32

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$0

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$37.04

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$11.28

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.