Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 58.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 98.9¢

+69% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,653

Combined PnL+$361.87

Over3 traders

Total Value$729.06

Total Shares6,227

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 61¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$36.33	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
Nooserac	Underavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$182.75	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Overavg 39¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.3K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.5¢	$535.72	$801.42	+$265.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$2.0K	$490.55	$-1.5K
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$1.7K	$433.94	$-1.3K	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.1K	$252.11	-$804.28	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 51¢	$127.5	$226.25	+$98.75	83% 2683-538 (3221)
NA NatoAlfista	Underavg 55¢	$207.24	$205.36	-$1.88	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47.83	$90.73	+$42.9	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 57.9¢	$62.26	$65.1	+$2.84	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$99.98	$43.01	-$56.97	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61¢	$21.96	$21.96	+$0.18	57% 29247-21632 (50879)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$2,216.13

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$36.33

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$1,204

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$182.75

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,549.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Under$535.7260.5¢+$265.7

Over$2,013.8439¢$-1.5K

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,691.53

Value

$433.94

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$1,056.39

Value

$252.11

PnL

-$804.28

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$127.5

Value

$226.25

PnL

+$98.75

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

NatoAlfista

Under

Invested

$207.24

Value

$205.36

PnL

-$1.88

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$47.83

Value

$90.73

PnL

+$42.9

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$62.26

Value

$65.1

PnL

+$2.84

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99.98

Value

$43.01

PnL

-$56.97

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$21.96

Value

$21.96

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.