Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 41¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$467.71

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 40.5¢

-28% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,146

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under12 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,240

Combined PnL-$844.51

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 43.5¢	$2.9K	$4.2K	+$1.3K	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
RN1CTR	Underavg 56¢	$1.4K	$949.26	-$413.78	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 57¢	$40.45	$905.44	-$6.32	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 56¢	$1.1K	$750	-$370	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 59¢	$663.75	$669.38	+$5.63	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 59¢	$295	$297.5	+$2.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 59¢	$295	$292.5	-$2.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Underavg 58¢	$198.05	$199.76	+$1.71	49% 64-67 (131)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 44¢	$121.95	$173.23	+$51.28	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$157.99	$127.97	-$30.02	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 56¢	$110.4	$114.24	+$3.84	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$73.92	$49.5	-$24.42	50% 2562-2599 (5161)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 43.7¢	$41.18	$48.45	+$7.27	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$44.79	$33.39	-$11.4	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$29.34	$29.59	+$0.25	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 41¢	$10.66	$10.53	-$0.13	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,946.92

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,363.04

Value

$949.26

PnL

-$413.78

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$40.45

Value

$905.44

PnL

-$6.32

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,120

Value

$750

PnL

-$370

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$663.75

Value

$669.38

PnL

+$5.63

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$295

Value

$297.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$295

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Siddhartha1CTR

Under

Invested

$198.05

Value

$199.76

PnL

+$1.71

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$121.95

Value

$173.23

PnL

+$51.28

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$157.99

Value

$127.97

PnL

-$30.02

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$110.4

Value

$114.24

PnL

+$3.84

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

cm2897CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.92

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$24.42

Record

50%

2562-2599 (5161)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$41.18

Value

$48.45

PnL

+$7.27

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.79

Value

$33.39

PnL

-$11.4

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.34

Value

$29.59

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$10.66

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.