Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Titans (90%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (67%) · Bengals at 11¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Bengals11¢Titans89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$492.72

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 10.5¢

-84% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBengals at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals11%

Titans90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares9,682

Combined PnL-$334.87

Titans3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares9,329

Combined PnL-$157.85

Bengals — 67%Titans — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA SadSquid54333CTR	Bengalsavg 74¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$119.43	56% 175-137 (312)
TA takeormake	Titansavg 48.4¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$6.71	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Bengalsavg 72.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$15.29	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
AN Anon455CTR	Bengalsavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$491.2	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
RN1	Titansavg 27.9¢	$822.36	$1.1K	+$293.05	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
TO tomb2456	Titansavg 58¢	$792.28	$334.67	-$457.61	49% 299-308 (607)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Bengalsavg 47.4¢	$330.27	$287.8	-$42.47	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 46.1¢	$114.52	$201.27	+$86.75
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 47.4¢	$215.75	$86.52	-$129.23
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Bengalsavg 57¢	$827.18	$174.81	-$652.37	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 57¢	$779.76	$95.76	-$684
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 55.8¢	$47.42	$79.05	+$31.63
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Bengalsavg 46.1¢	$131.82	$151.45	+$19.62	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
0X 0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346CTR<$100	Bengalsavg 50¢	$21.15	$22	+$0.85	45% 99-122 (221)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 58¢	$8.7	$7.55	+$1.15	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

SadSquid54333CTR

Bengals

Invested

$2,945.94

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$119.43

Record

56%

175-137 (312)

takeormake

Titans

Invested

$2,588.84

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$6.71

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,825.37

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15.29

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

Anon455CTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,631.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$491.2

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

RN1

Titans

Invested

$822.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$293.05

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

tomb2456

Titans

Invested

$792.28

Value

$334.67

PnL

-$457.61

Record

49%

299-308 (607)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Bengals

Invested

$330.27

Value

$287.8

PnL

-$42.47

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Titans$114.5246.1¢+$86.75

Bengals$215.7547.4¢-$129.23

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Bengals

Invested

$827.18

Value

$174.81

PnL

-$652.37

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Bengals$779.7657¢-$684

Titans$47.4255.8¢+$31.63

topdogbigboiCTR

Bengals

Invested

$131.82

Value

$151.45

PnL

+$19.62

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346CTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$21.15

Value

$22

PnL

+$0.85

Record

45%

99-122 (221)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$8.7

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$1.15

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

AvoidBengals at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.