Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Titans (90%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (64%) · Bengals at 11¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Bengals11¢Titans89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 64%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$438.53

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 10.5¢

-81% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBengals at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals11%

Titans90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals7 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares11,558

Combined PnL+$247.22

Titans4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,040

Combined PnL+$191.3

Bengals — 64%Titans — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
unknowngamblerCTR	Bengalsavg 69¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$15.07	58% 401-293 (694)
AN Anon455CTR	Bengalsavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$405.95	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Bengalsavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$14.88	46% 367-427 (794)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bengalsavg 52.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$66.95	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
NooseracCTR	Bengalsavg 70¢	$1.1K	$990	-$60	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TA takeormake	Titansavg 48.4¢	$779.84	$909.84	+$130	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RN1	Titansavg 43.4¢	$612.55	$695.67	+$83.12	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 75¢	$30	$30.4	+$0.4	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 26.6¢	$22.92	$20.69	-$2.22	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
TO tomb2456<$100	Titansavg 64¢	$32.64	$12.24	-$20.4	49% 299-308 (607)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Titansavg 43¢	$6.75	$5.34	-$1.41	59% 46944-33223 (80167)

unknowngamblerCTR

Bengals

Invested

$2,080.35

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15.07

Record

58%

401-293 (694)

Anon455CTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,451.64

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$405.95

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.88

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,145.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$66.95

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

NooseracCTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,050

Value

$990

PnL

-$60

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

takeormake

Titans

Invested

$779.84

Value

$909.84

PnL

+$130

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RN1

Titans

Invested

$612.55

Value

$695.67

PnL

+$83.12

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$30

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$22.92

Value

$20.69

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

tomb2456<$100

Titans

Invested

$32.64

Value

$12.24

PnL

-$20.4

Record

49%

299-308 (607)

UpTheBlues<$100

Titans

Invested

$6.75

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$1.41

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Research grade

AvoidBengals at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.