Will Viking FK win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$827.62

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 96.5¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,948

Combined PnL-$352.07

No8 traders

Total Value$844.4

Total Shares6,273

Combined PnL-$475.54

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 83.2¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$401.74	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
RN1	Yesavg 79.7¢	$831.79	$896.27	+$64.48	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 96.1¢	$623.45	$626.26	+$2.81	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 21.2¢	$276.43	$267.43	-$9	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 21.2¢	$268.72	$259.66	-$9.06	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 90¢	$208.12	$189.14	-$18.98	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$103.56	$98.25	-$5.31	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 20¢	$157.54	$94.12	-$63.42	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 19.2¢	$393.63	$71.81	-$321.83	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$91.69	$69.78	-$21.92	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.9¢	$44.96	$43.77	-$1.19
└ No leg	Noavg 20.7¢	$46.73	$26	-$20.73
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$113.32	$47.54	-$65.78	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 91.2¢	$23.48	$24.84	+$1.36	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 22.6¢	$3.39	$3.23	-$0.16	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$10.06	$2.38	-$0.98	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,629.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$401.74

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$831.79

Value

$896.27

PnL

+$64.48

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$623.45

Value

$626.26

PnL

+$2.81

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$276.43

Value

$267.43

PnL

-$9

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$268.72

Value

$259.66

PnL

-$9.06

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$208.12

Value

$189.14

PnL

-$18.98

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$103.56

Value

$98.25

PnL

-$5.31

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$157.54

Value

$94.12

PnL

-$63.42

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$393.63

Value

$71.81

PnL

-$321.83

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$91.69

Value

$69.78

PnL

-$21.92

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

Yes$44.9690.9¢-$1.19

No$46.7320.7¢-$20.73

LimousinCTR

Invested

$113.32

Value

$47.54

PnL

-$65.78

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.48

Value

$24.84

PnL

+$1.36

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.16

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$10.06

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.98

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.