Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 34¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$473.48

Smart Money Entry

23¢ → 33.5¢

+45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares13,669

Combined PnL+$475.52

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,363

Combined PnL-$2.05

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 22.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$363.37	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 22.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.21	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
0X 0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7	Overavg 78¢	$691.13	$686.7	-$4.43	66% 98-51 (149)
SB sbimbg	Overavg 76¢	$362.33	$364.71	+$2.38	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 24.1¢	$272.39	$349.95	+$77.56	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 30.8¢	$320.82	$333.42	+$12.6	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 22¢	$189.45	$193.76	+$4.31	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$44	$46	+$2	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 23.3¢	$32.68	$35.79	+$3.11	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 23.8¢	$21.73	$26.03	+$4.3	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$2.82	$2.88	+$0.06	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,079.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$363.37

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,192.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.21

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7

Over

Invested

$691.13

Value

$686.7

PnL

-$4.43

Record

66%

98-51 (149)

sbimbg

Over

Invested

$362.33

Value

$364.71

PnL

+$2.38

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$272.39

Value

$349.95

PnL

+$77.56

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$320.82

Value

$333.42

PnL

+$12.6

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$189.45

Value

$193.76

PnL

+$4.31

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44

Value

$46

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.68

Value

$35.79

PnL

+$3.11

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.73

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$4.3

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.