Will AC Monza win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 68¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$291.9

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 67.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares15,422

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares11,776

Combined PnL+$845.67

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 77¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$584.42	66% 364-185 (549)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72.9¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$297.92	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 75¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$225	67% 2892-1409 (4301)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$243.27	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$895.55	$1.1K	+$243.99	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$802.78	$1.1K	+$310.22	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$592.67	$605.15	+$12.48	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$368.9	$376.51	+$7.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$223.77	$228.64	+$4.86
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$398.43	$420.34	+$21.91	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$212.91	$236.05	+$23.14
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$185.53	$184.29	-$1.24
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$154.47	$199.99	+$45.52	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0xheavy888	Noavg 76¢	$212.03	$188.32	-$23.71	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$155.64	$158.07	+$2.43	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 29.6¢	$137.69	$143.2	+$5.51	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.6¢	$99.69	$109.45	+$9.76
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$38	$33.75	-$4.25
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$96.42	$72.66	-$5.16	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$13.53	$13.62	+$0.1	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 76¢	$12.16	$10.8	-$1.36	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.93	$2.14	+$0.21	49% 299-312 (611)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.23	-$0.07	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$584.42

Record

66%

364-185 (549)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,031.16

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$297.92

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$225

Record

67%

2892-1409 (4301)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,113.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$243.27

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$895.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$243.99

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$802.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$310.22

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$592.67

Value

$605.15

PnL

+$12.48

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Invested

$398.43

Value

$420.34

PnL

+$21.91

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Invested

$154.47

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$45.52

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0xheavy888

Invested

$212.03

Value

$188.32

PnL

-$23.71

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$155.64

Value

$158.07

PnL

+$2.43

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$137.69

Value

$143.2

PnL

+$5.51

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Yes$99.6929.6¢+$9.76

No$3876¢-$4.25

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$96.42

Value

$72.66

PnL

-$5.16

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.53

Value

$13.62

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$1.36

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.93

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.