Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$97.45

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 97.9¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,346

Combined PnL-$140.88

Yes4 traders

Total Value$74.14

Total Shares2,471

Combined PnL+$43.43

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.79	53% 22473-19696 (42169)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$154.73	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.2¢	$128.06	$120.2	+$0.34	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 98.3¢	$229.79	$70.64	-$0.22	55% 4387-3591 (7978)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$16.44	$30.48	+$14.04	48% 59185-63178 (122363)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.58	$28.3	+$26.8	58% 45399-32894 (78293)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$68.06	$25.13	-$0.43	40% 1023-1558 (2581)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 94¢	$23.27	$22.13	-$1.14	44% 6394-8084 (14478)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$9.06	$9	-$0.06	18% 4259-20009 (24268)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$6.94	$6.54	-$0.4	51% 7646-7363 (15009)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$3.71	$6.36	+$2.65	50% 20688-20949 (41637)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 98.6¢	$407.39	$0.97	-$0.1	47% 2122-2412 (4534)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,426.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.79

Record

53%

22473-19696 (42169)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,022.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$154.73

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

Flaznorp

Invested

$128.06

Value

$120.2

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$229.79

Value

$70.64

PnL

-$0.22

Record

55%

4387-3591 (7978)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.44

Value

$30.48

PnL

+$14.04

Record

48%

59185-63178 (122363)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.58

Value

$28.3

PnL

+$26.8

Record

58%

45399-32894 (78293)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$68.06

Value

$25.13

PnL

-$0.43

Record

40%

1023-1558 (2581)

korda77<$100

Invested

$23.27

Value

$22.13

PnL

-$1.14

Record

44%

6394-8084 (14478)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.06

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

18%

4259-20009 (24268)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.94

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

7646-7363 (15009)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.71

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$2.65

Record

50%

20688-20949 (41637)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$407.39

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2122-2412 (4534)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.