Exact Score: Galatasaray SK 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$154.71

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,269

Combined PnL-$19.84

Yes4 traders

Total Value$424.66

Total Shares6,424

Combined PnL-$134.87

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 91¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$13.45	53% 916-813 (1729)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 90.8¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	-$132.33	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 91¢	$958.13	$973.92	+$15.79	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 92¢	$602.6	$654.67	+$52.07	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 91.3¢	$345.25	$374.09	+$28.84	54% 906-787 (1693)
SB sbimbgCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$450	$350	-$100	70% 3234-1395 (4629)
DJ djdjdjCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$90	$70	-$20	33% 104-209 (313)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 91¢	$51.87	$52.73	+$0.29	56% 942-736 (1678)
RN1<$100	Noavg 92¢	$22.08	$23.74	+$1.66	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90¢	$14.34	$14.74	+$0.4	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$13.51	$3.72	-$9.79	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$6.02	$0.95	-$5.08	58% 44610-32488 (77098)

Venusian

Invested

$2,447.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$13.45

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,326

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$132.33

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$958.13

Value

$973.92

PnL

+$15.79

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

38791873984189

Invested

$602.6

Value

$654.67

PnL

+$52.07

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

LightParadox

Invested

$345.25

Value

$374.09

PnL

+$28.84

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

sbimbgCTR

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$350

PnL

-$100

Record

70%

3234-1395 (4629)

djdjdjCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$70

PnL

-$20

Record

33%

104-209 (313)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$51.87

Value

$52.73

PnL

+$0.29

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

RN1<$100

Invested

$22.08

Value

$23.74

PnL

+$1.66

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.34

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.51

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$9.79

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.02

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$5.08

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.