Will Spain win on 2026-11-12?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 83¢ · $65K held · ends Nov 12

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.7K

Combined PnL

$202.94

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 82.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$55.6K

Total Shares67,613

Combined PnL+$168.76

No8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares44,191

Combined PnL+$34.18

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 82¢	$27.8K	$27.8K	+$0	— 8-5 (13)
nigiri99	Yesavg 82¢	$26.3K	$26.5K	+$160.33	52% 128-120 (248)
TY Tys0n8686CTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$55.45	—
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 18.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$33.21	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
└ No leg	Noavg 18.4¢	$860.12	$820.07	-$40.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80.8¢	$334.3	$341.15	+$6.84
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 82¢	$555.74	$555.65	-$0.09	61% 930-595 (1525)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	Noavg 18¢	$540	$540	+$0	—
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 18¢	$539.95	$539.95	-$0	59% 3479-2370 (5849)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 18.4¢	$492.79	$481.43	-$11.36	21% 100-384 (484)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 81.1¢	$536.27	$339.03	+$5.76	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 81.3¢	$329.42	$332.1	+$2.68	—
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 18¢	$306.72	$298.2	-$8.52	—
SU suntori	Yesavg 82¢	$125.55	$125.5	-$0.06	—
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$59.76	$59.76	-$0	23% 36-124 (160)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 18.8¢	$49.21	$47.74	-$1.47	39% 407-633 (1040)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 18.3¢	$51.81	$42.09	+$0.08	55% 699-561 (1260)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$13.11	$13.11	+$0	—
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$11.82	$11.97	+$0.15	—
HY hydra1248<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$2.28	$2.28	+$0	—

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$27,770.12

Value

$27.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

8-5 (13)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$26,293.3

Value

$26.5K

PnL

+$160.33

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Tys0n8686CTR

Invested

$5,901.24

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$55.45

Record

—

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,194.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$33.21

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

Both legs:

No$860.1218.4¢-$40.05

Yes$334.380.8¢+$6.84

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$555.74

Value

$555.65

PnL

-$0.09

Record

61%

930-595 (1525)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

Invested

$540

Value

$540

PnL

+$0

Record

—

NM-PCTR

Invested

$539.95

Value

$539.95

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3479-2370 (5849)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$492.79

Value

$481.43

PnL

-$11.36

Record

21%

100-384 (484)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$536.27

Value

$339.03

PnL

+$5.76

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$329.42

Value

$332.1

PnL

+$2.68

Record

—

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$306.72

Value

$298.2

PnL

-$8.52

Record

—

suntori

Yes

Invested

$125.55

Value

$125.5

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$59.76

PnL

-$0

Record

23%

36-124 (160)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$49.21

Value

$47.74

PnL

-$1.47

Record

39%

407-633 (1040)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$51.81

Value

$42.09

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

699-561 (1260)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.11

Value

$13.11

PnL

+$0

Record

—

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.82

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

hydra1248<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.