Will Servette FC Chênois Féminin win on 2026-11-10?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
1 arb excluded
$5.2K
$128.41
91¢ → 96.4¢
+6% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90.2¢ | $3.3K | $3.5K | +$203.81 | 50% 1414-1418 (2832) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 92.9¢ | $611.98 | $605.78 | -$6.2 | 25% 221-650 (871) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 93¢ | $488.91 | $491.54 | +$2.63 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $198.12 | $198.12 | +$0 | 25% 219-662 (881) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11¢ | $153.62 | $153.62 | +$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $44.5 | +$0 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.9¢ | $177.47 | $182.99 | +$5.52 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $144.23 | $62.34 | -$81.89 | 25% 220-643 (863) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $45 | $47.25 | +$2.25 | 20% 29-116 (145) |
SU suitcase6628<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $45 | $46.25 | +$1.25 | 64% 158-89 (247) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $29.22 | $29.29 | +$0.07 | 58% 3762-2719 (6481) |
PA pagliacci4<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $10 | $9.94 | -$0.06 | 27% 12-32 (44) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $8.1 | $8.33 | +$0.23 | 42% 204-281 (485) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $6.3 | $6.65 | +$0.35 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 31% 171-389 (560) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $19.49 | $0.66 | +$0.45 | 50% 240-242 (482) |
Invested
$3,292.9
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$203.81
Record
50%
1414-1418 (2832)
Invested
$611.98
Value
$605.78
PnL
-$6.2
Record
25%
221-650 (871)
Invested
$488.91
Value
$491.54
PnL
+$2.63
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
Invested
$198.12
Value
$198.12
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
219-662 (881)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.47
Value
$182.99
PnL
+$5.52
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$144.23
Value
$62.34
PnL
-$81.89
Record
25%
220-643 (863)
Invested
$45
Value
$47.25
PnL
+$2.25
Record
20%
29-116 (145)
Invested
$45
Value
$46.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
64%
158-89 (247)
RN1<$100Invested
$29.22
Value
$29.29
PnL
+$0.07
Record
58%
3762-2719 (6481)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
27%
12-32 (44)
dips.<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.33
PnL
+$0.23
Record
42%
204-281 (485)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.35
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
171-389 (560)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.49
Value
$0.66
PnL
+$0.45
Record
50%
240-242 (482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.