Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-11?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 11

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

-$6.34

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 94.5¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares22,069

Combined PnL-$6.34

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 94.2¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$10.38	30% 371-861 (1232)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 94.9¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$32.87	38% 136-221 (357)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$1.46	31% 375-842 (1217)
LI Limousin	Noavg 94.6¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$10.65	30% 372-863 (1235)
VE Venusian	Noavg 94.3¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$5.16	30% 376-862 (1238)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$22.98	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.5¢	$801.2	$798.66	-$2.54	45% 262-316 (578)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$454.67	$459.11	+$4.44	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.3¢	$350.04	$349.7	-$0.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.5¢	$104.63	$109.41	+$4.78
SE sentrio	Noavg 94¢	$258.32	$259.67	+$1.36	37% 340-569 (909)
tradecraft	Noavg 94.3¢	$249.42	$249.82	+$0.4	19% 146-610 (756)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$63.75	$58.63	+$0.97	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$26.36	$26.48	+$0.13	9% 13-129 (142)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$16.45	$16.25	-$0.2	51% 442-417 (859)

LightParadox

Invested

$5,309.9

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$10.38

Record

30%

371-861 (1232)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$4,430.22

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$32.87

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

MadridTime

Invested

$2,998.01

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$1.46

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

Limousin

Invested

$2,777.37

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$10.65

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

Venusian

Invested

$2,654.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$5.16

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,615.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.98

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

SnakeBall

Invested

$801.2

Value

$798.66

PnL

-$2.54

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$454.67

Value

$459.11

PnL

+$4.44

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

Both legs:

No$350.0494.3¢-$0.34

Yes$104.635.5¢+$4.78

sentrio

Invested

$258.32

Value

$259.67

PnL

+$1.36

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

tradecraft

Invested

$249.42

Value

$249.82

PnL

+$0.4

Record

19%

146-610 (756)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$63.75

Value

$58.63

PnL

+$0.97

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$26.36

Value

$26.48

PnL

+$0.13

Record

13-129 (142)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

442-417 (859)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.