Will Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge end in a draw?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 81¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Yes81¢No19¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 80.5¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,977

Combined PnL+$694.82

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,827

Combined PnL+$455.34

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 44.7¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$692.88	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
RN1	Yesavg 76.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$29.95	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 65.9¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$224.7	31% 390-871 (1261)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$995.95	$879.94	-$116.01	38% 137-223 (360)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80¢	$664.78	$664.78	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 30.8¢	$331.17	$215.15	-$116.01
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 20¢	$522.19	$522.19	+$0	30% 378-880 (1258)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$594.21	$205.82	-$251.43	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.5¢	$361.13	$145.98	-$238.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.2¢	$48.05	$59.83	-$13.23
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 33.4¢	$79.7	$189.62	+$109.92	30% 380-875 (1255)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$92.35	$96.85	+$4.5	31% 384-854 (1238)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$27.04	$70.17	+$43.13	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$26.15	$68	+$41.85	5% 16-311 (327)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$28.4	$30.4	+$2	64% 267-152 (419)
machinelearned<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$12.8	$13.7	+$0.9	40% 530-798 (1328)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.33	$1.71	+$0.38	52% 463-433 (896)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1.25	$1.19	-$0.06	19% 150-621 (771)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,144.78

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$692.88

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,295.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.95

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$1,046.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$224.7

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$995.95

Value

$879.94

PnL

-$116.01

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

Both legs:

Yes$664.7880¢+$0

No$331.1730.8¢-$116.01

LimousinCTR

Invested

$522.19

Value

$522.19

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$594.21

Value

$205.82

PnL

-$251.43

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

Both legs:

No$361.1349.5¢-$238.2

Yes$48.0564.2¢-$13.23

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$79.7

Value

$189.62

PnL

+$109.92

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.35

Value

$96.85

PnL

+$4.5

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.04

Value

$70.17

PnL

+$43.13

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.15

Value

$68

PnL

+$41.85

Record

16-311 (327)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Invested

$28.4

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$2

Record

64%

267-152 (419)

machinelearned<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

40%

530-798 (1328)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.06

Record

19%

150-621 (771)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.