Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: O/U 1.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$926.73

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,550

Combined PnL+$687.22

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,426

Combined PnL+$239.51

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 62.7¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$390.76	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.8¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$772.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.7¢	$1.2K	$804.88	-$381.62
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 18.2¢	$297.36	$1.1K	+$773.54	38% 137-223 (360)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 20¢	$262.9	$905.09	+$642.19	30% 378-880 (1258)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 98¢	$687.96	$698.49	+$10.53	83% 35-7 (42)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 51.6¢	$580.09	$630.9	+$220.09	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 56.7¢	$113.13	$134.31	+$21.18	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.7¢	$74.24	$75.28	+$1.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 28¢	$38.89	$59.02	+$20.14
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 90¢	$84.28	$93.17	+$8.9	24% 37-118 (155)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 35.4¢	$37.45	$85.83	+$48.38	31% 390-871 (1261)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$12.19	$32.4	+$20.21	30% 380-875 (1255)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$799.89	$7.92	-$791.98	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$2.58	$3.03	+$0.45	31% 384-854 (1238)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$1.76	$0.44	-$1.32	45% 233-284 (517)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$4.5	$0.25	-$4.25	53% 5734-5129 (10863)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,213.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$390.76

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

Both legs:

Under$1,026.632.8¢+$772.38

Over$1,186.562.7¢-$381.62

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$297.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$773.54

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$262.9

Value

$905.09

PnL

+$642.19

Record

30%

378-880 (1258)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$687.96

Value

$698.49

PnL

+$10.53

Record

83%

35-7 (42)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$580.09

Value

$630.9

PnL

+$220.09

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$113.13

Value

$134.31

PnL

+$21.18

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

Both legs:

Under$74.2456.7¢+$1.05

Over$38.8928¢+$20.14

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$84.28

Value

$93.17

PnL

+$8.9

Record

24%

37-118 (155)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.45

Value

$85.83

PnL

+$48.38

Record

31%

390-871 (1261)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.19

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$20.21

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$799.89

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$791.98

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.45

Record

31%

384-854 (1238)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$1.32

Record

45%

233-284 (517)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$4.25

Record

53%

5734-5129 (10863)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.