Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

14.3¢ → 1.1¢

-93% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,201

Combined PnL+$177.97

Yes10 traders

Total Value$487.3

Total Shares37,484

Combined PnL$-4.8K

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251	Noavg 90.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$177.97	89% 538-64 (602)
ET ethBELIVERCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$2.5K	$292.46	$-2.2K	40% 25-37 (62)
AV AvamaxCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$329.66	$59.86	-$248.43	81% 421-101 (522)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 20.2¢	$924.76	$59.62	-$860.54	55% 338-273 (611)
CH Champions26CTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$1.5K	$46.48	$-1.4K	63% 407-239 (646)
FO forgetfuldoryCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$16.66	$12.51	-$4.15	— 5-5 (10)
SI simplemanCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$35.63	$6.14	-$29.5	47% 456-520 (976)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$42.57	$5.9	-$36.67	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
CD CDAP1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.1	$3.57	+$2.48	30% 11-26 (37)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$3.89	$0.64	-$3.25	50% 357-357 (714)
DonationsReceiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.89	$0.13	-$0.76	60% 245-160 (405)

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$177.97

Record

89%

538-64 (602)

ethBELIVERCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,461.89

Value

$292.46

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

AvamaxCTR

Yes

Invested

$329.66

Value

$59.86

PnL

-$248.43

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$924.76

Value

$59.62

PnL

-$860.54

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

Champions26CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,478.87

Value

$46.48

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

63%

407-239 (646)

forgetfuldoryCTR

Yes

Invested

$16.66

Value

$12.51

PnL

-$4.15

Record

—

5-5 (10)

simplemanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.63

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$29.5

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.57

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$36.67

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

CDAP1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$2.48

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$3.25

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

DonationsReceiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.76

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4550.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4650.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.