Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $192 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$191.89

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 0.1¢

-91% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$191.89

Total Shares127,925

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$511.67	$146.72	-$364.95	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$534.19	$15.21	-$518.98	58% 928-661 (1589)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$7.31	$7.31	-$367.47	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$343.25	$6.7	-$336.65	47% 85-95 (180)
FO FolletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$66.27	$5.77	-$60.51	69% 423-188 (611)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$20	$5.22	-$283.94	55% 1191-966 (2157)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$0	$2.72	+$2.72	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$15.9	$1.63	-$14.26	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$62.19	$0.59	-$61.6	65% 1075-583 (1658)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$0	$0.01	+$0.01	41% 648-925 (1573)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$0.49	$0.01	-$0.48	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$511.67

Value

$146.72

PnL

-$364.95

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$534.19

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$518.98

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.31

Value

$7.31

PnL

-$367.47

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$343.25

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$336.65

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

FolletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.27

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$60.51

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$283.94

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$2.72

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.9

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$14.26

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.19

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$61.6

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.48

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.