Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alex Karaban win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $600 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$599.86

Combined PnL

$37.92

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$599.86

Total Shares1,596

Combined PnL+$37.92

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$12.07	$154.01	-$1.79	39% 2906-4507 (7413)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.38	$138.93	-$3.32	54% 12536-10870 (23406)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$29.97	$81.66	-$2.29	47% 3839-4297 (8136)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.65	$59.13	-$1.41	27% 2539-6898 (9437)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.34	$53.14	+$49.8	40% 6551-9831 (16382)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$2.79	$49.49	-$0.96	40% 256-391 (647)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$26.26	$26.26	-$0.63	— 6-0 (6)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.02	$20.79	-$0.35	31% 3280-7135 (10415)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$10.3	-$0.25	42% 889-1206 (2095)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$80.92	$5.96	-$1.06	49% 6579-6938 (13517)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.19	$0.19	+$0.2	27% 600-1658 (2258)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.07

Value

$154.01

PnL

-$1.79

Record

39%

2906-4507 (7413)

qwen300.fundCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$138.93

PnL

-$3.32

Record

54%

12536-10870 (23406)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.97

Value

$81.66

PnL

-$2.29

Record

47%

3839-4297 (8136)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$59.13

PnL

-$1.41

Record

27%

2539-6898 (9437)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$53.14

PnL

+$49.8

Record

40%

6551-9831 (16382)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.79

Value

$49.49

PnL

-$0.96

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.26

Value

$26.26

PnL

-$0.63

Record

—

6-0 (6)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$20.79

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

3280-7135 (10415)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

889-1206 (2095)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.92

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

6579-6938 (13517)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.2

Record

27%

600-1658 (2258)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.