Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $490 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$489.94

Combined PnL

-$865.67

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.2¢

-61% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$489.94

Total Shares244,971

Combined PnL-$865.67

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

257h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$619.34	$186.16	-$520.13	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$381.09	$180.4	-$190.96	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$60	-$58.11	64% 154-88 (242)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$22.69	-$46.45	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$49.24	$12.63	-$36.69	47% 83-94 (177)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$21.49	$8	-$12.47	43% 370-481 (851)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$6.66	+$6.66	26% 351-985 (1336)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$11.09	$4.4	-$6.69	68% 2074-957 (3031)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$4	+$4	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$3	-$2.91	58% 1153-825 (1978)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$3.94	$2	-$1.94	80% 2709-698 (3407)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$619.34

Value

$186.16

PnL

-$520.13

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$381.09

Value

$180.4

PnL

-$190.96

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$60

PnL

-$58.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$22.69

PnL

-$46.45

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.24

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$36.69

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

fireponbabylonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.49

Value

PnL

-$12.47

Record

43%

370-481 (851)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$6.66

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$6.69

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$4

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

PnL

-$2.91

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.94

Value

PnL

-$1.94

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

257h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7916.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

8016.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.