Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $35 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$35.01

Combined PnL

-$261.89

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.1¢

-87% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$30.01

Total Shares60,029

Combined PnL-$261.9

No1 trader

Total Value$5

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes — 91%No — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4000h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$105.49	$13.17	-$92.32	41% 166-240 (406)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$5.67	-$63.47	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.98	$5	+$0.02	69% 987-450 (1437)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$3.34	$3.34	-$48.85	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$47.82	$3.07	-$44.83	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$1.67	+$1.67	26% 351-985 (1336)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$11.09	$1.1	-$9.99	68% 2074-957 (3031)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$1	+$1	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$0.75	-$5.16	58% 1153-825 (1978)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$0.22	$0.22	+$0.22	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
RE rebotsliafCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.2	$0.03	-$0.18	25% 185-564 (749)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.49

Value

$13.17

PnL

-$92.32

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$63.47

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

PnL

+$0.02

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$48.85

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.82

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$44.83

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$1.67

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$9.99

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$5.16

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.22

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

rebotsliafCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.18

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4000h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.