Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $237 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$236.54

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.1¢

-89% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$236.54

Total Shares473,079

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

217h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.2K	$96.13	$-1.1K	67% 751-378 (1129)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$173.72	$42.28	-$554.83	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$66.67	$33.33	-$33.33	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yes	$30.19	$30.19	-$393.28	60% 1348-884 (2232)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$15	-$103.11	64% 154-88 (242)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$124.97	$8.3	-$116.65	66% 944-496 (1440)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$51.27	$4.01	-$47.29	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$3.1	-$42.27	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$2.5	-$24.91	68% 2074-957 (3031)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$1.57	+$1.57	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.15	$0.14	-$2.01	45% 1905-2348 (4253)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$1,172.76

Value

$96.13

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.72

Value

$42.28

PnL

-$554.83

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.67

Value

$33.33

PnL

-$33.33

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.19

Value

$30.19

PnL

-$393.28

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$15

PnL

-$103.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.97

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$116.65

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.27

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$47.29

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$42.27

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$24.91

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$1.57

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.01

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

217h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.