Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.3¢

-51% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares868,605

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

348 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.5K	67% 751-378 (1129)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.1K	$694.44	-$438.61	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$593.35	$352.29	-$274.93	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
solwizzo-onXCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$90	$25	-$65	67% 347-174 (521)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$10	-$11.89	68% 2074-957 (3031)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$9.28	-$15.49	26% 351-985 (1336)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$24	$7.5	-$16.5	71% 968-396 (1364)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yes	$7.5	$7.5	-$15.86	60% 1348-884 (2232)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.82	$5.01	-$7.82	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.74	$0.74	-$1.56	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0.05	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$2,536.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,133.33

Value

$694.44

PnL

-$438.61

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$593.35

Value

$352.29

PnL

-$274.93

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

solwizzo-onXCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$25

PnL

-$65

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$10

PnL

-$11.89

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$15.49

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$16.5

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$15.86

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.82

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$7.82

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$1.56

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

348 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.