Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$67.99

Smart Money Entry

32.4¢ → 47.6¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$720.69

Total Shares1,590

Combined PnL+$244.14

No6 traders

Total Value$389.56

Total Shares744

Combined PnL-$176.15

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

185h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SteveTheFishCTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$279.34	$348.86	+$69.53	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.7¢	$335.67	$196.16	-$99.67	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR	Yesavg 31.6¢	$119.86	$171.22	+$51.36	— 0-14 (14)
HA HauchnCTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$132.62	$127.2	+$105	39% 27-42 (69)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 72.6¢	$101.6	$73.29	-$28.31	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$61.69	$42.93	-$18.76	66% 4160-2189 (6349)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.3¢	$38.43	$39.51	+$1.08	47% 117-130 (247)
WordleAddictCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$16.73	$33.9	+$17.17	— 0-2 (2)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$41.52	$31.41	-$10.11	12% 34-257 (291)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$39.59	$30.06	-$9.53	— 6-4 (10)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$25.47	$15.7	-$9.77	26% 116-337 (453)

SteveTheFishCTR

Yes

Invested

$279.34

Value

$348.86

PnL

+$69.53

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$335.67

Value

$196.16

PnL

-$99.67

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.86

Value

$171.22

PnL

+$51.36

Record

—

0-14 (14)

HauchnCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.62

Value

$127.2

PnL

+$105

Record

39%

27-42 (69)

cigarettes

Invested

$101.6

Value

$73.29

PnL

-$28.31

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$61.69

Value

$42.93

PnL

-$18.76

Record

66%

4160-2189 (6349)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.43

Value

$39.51

PnL

+$1.08

Record

47%

117-130 (247)

WordleAddictCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.73

Value

$33.9

PnL

+$17.17

Record

—

0-2 (2)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$41.52

Value

$31.41

PnL

-$10.11

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$39.59

Value

$30.06

PnL

-$9.53

Record

—

6-4 (10)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.47

Value

$15.7

PnL

-$9.77

Record

26%

116-337 (453)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

185h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.6%

47.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.