Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 41¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$572.32

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 41¢

-27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares9,399

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,337

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1139h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL flawfenceCTR	Noavg 56.7¢	$5.3K	$2.8K	$-2.4K	46% 271-319 (590)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$59.42	18% 366-1654 (2020)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61¢	$925.17	$1.0K	+$89.51
└ No leg	Noavg 39.6¢	$599.6	$484.95	-$148.93
paddaa	Yesavg 38.3¢	$4.6K	$665.65	+$2.1K	56% 836-645 (1481)
PK pkz	Yesavg 9.9¢	$71.03	$567	+$495.97	58% 470-346 (816)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 62.3¢	$492.52	$561.81	+$69.29	82% 1758-394 (2152)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 39.5¢	$224.26	$261.25	+$87.99	76% 11358-3527 (14885)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$52.44	$77.34	+$24.9	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
AN anoin123<$100	Yesavg 32.3¢	$19.26	$41.87	+$22.61	47% 476-535 (1011)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954jCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$49.2	$38.4	-$10.8	64% 85-47 (132)
10 101456<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$10.8	$19.24	+$8.45	53% 141-126 (267)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 50¢	$1.8K	$12.64	+$162.03	53% 6697-5893 (12590)

flawfenceCTR

Invested

$5,251.09

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,727.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$59.42

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

Both legs:

Yes$925.1761¢+$89.51

No$599.639.6¢-$148.93

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$4,580

Value

$665.65

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

pkz

Yes

Invested

$71.03

Value

$567

PnL

+$495.97

Record

58%

470-346 (816)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$492.52

Value

$561.81

PnL

+$69.29

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$224.26

Value

$261.25

PnL

+$87.99

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.44

Value

$77.34

PnL

+$24.9

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

anoin123<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.26

Value

$41.87

PnL

+$22.61

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

LJa7io23MCv954jCTR<$100

Invested

$49.2

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$10.8

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

101456<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$8.45

Record

53%

141-126 (267)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$1,769.43

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$162.03

Record

53%

6697-5893 (12590)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1139h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.