Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$238.99

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 99.1¢

+99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$675.95

Total Shares1,014

Combined PnL+$186.18

No4 traders

Total Value$85.75

Total Shares244

Combined PnL+$52.82

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0.84	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.2¢	$242.75	$729	+$486.24
└ No leg	Noavg 77.8¢	$851.48	$364.78	-$487.08
balthazarARB<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$2.9K	$893.03	-$390.56	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.4¢	$297.47	$530.5	+$438.82
└ No leg	Noavg 73.9¢	$802.95	$362.52	-$829.38
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 53.6¢	$457.09	$607.95	+$150.86	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$787.5	$137.73	-$83.34	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.4¢	$228.45	$105.28	-$249.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.2¢	$11.81	$32.46	+$166.54
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$1.14	$36.35	+$35.21	59% 3711-2576 (6287)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$54.68	$34.67	+$9.99	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
BR BreakTheBank<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$8	$33.32	+$25.32	44% 592-763 (1355)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 0.3¢	$0.27	$30.02	+$29.75	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$42.46	$18.39	-$12.62	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$0.53	$1	+$0.47	53% 8200-7292 (15492)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$1,104.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0.84

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

Yes$242.7522.2¢+$486.24

No$851.4877.8¢-$487.08

balthazarARB<$100

Invested

$2,913.32

Value

$893.03

PnL

-$390.56

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Both legs:

Yes$297.4737.4¢+$438.82

No$802.9573.9¢-$829.38

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$457.09

Value

$607.95

PnL

+$150.86

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$787.5

Value

$137.73

PnL

-$83.34

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$228.4572.4¢-$249.87

Yes$11.8124.2¢+$166.54

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$36.35

PnL

+$35.21

Record

59%

3711-2576 (6287)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.68

Value

$34.67

PnL

+$9.99

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

BreakTheBank<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$33.32

PnL

+$25.32

Record

44%

592-763 (1355)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.27

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$29.75

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$42.46

Value

$18.39

PnL

-$12.62

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.