Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 12¢ · $381 held · ended Nov 4

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$380.77

Combined PnL

-$87.05

Smart Money Entry

12.3¢ → 11.7¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$266.12

Total Shares3,077

Combined PnL-$100.6

No6 traders

Total Value$114.65

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$13.55

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

456h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AZ AzariahJubyCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$220	$146.35	-$73.65	— 0-8 (8)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$133.46	$99.09	-$34.37	39% 1053-1631 (2684)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81¢	$64.78	$73.08	+$8.3	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$76.68	$19.55	+$4.25	66% 4116-2138 (6254)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$33.81	$15.85	+$10.01	45% 13-16 (29)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$10.58	$11.18	+$0.61	55% 581-483 (1064)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$4.58	$4.66	+$0.07	49% 353-368 (721)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$4.54	$4.61	+$0.07	43% 386-510 (896)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$6.37	$4.32	-$2.05	41% 3126-4493 (7619)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$1.33	$1.57	+$0.24	27% 105-283 (388)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$1.05	$0.5	-$0.55	83% 24-5 (29)

AzariahJubyCTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$146.35

PnL

-$73.65

Record

—

0-8 (8)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$133.46

Value

$99.09

PnL

-$34.37

Record

39%

1053-1631 (2684)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$64.78

Value

$73.08

PnL

+$8.3

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$76.68

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$4.25

Record

66%

4116-2138 (6254)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.81

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$10.01

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.58

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0.61

Record

55%

581-483 (1064)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.58

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

353-368 (721)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.07

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.37

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$2.05

Record

41%

3126-4493 (7619)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0.24

Record

27%

105-283 (388)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

83%

24-5 (29)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

456h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.1%

11.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$663.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

763.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.