Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 98¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$66.11

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares19,996

Combined PnL+$119.51

No5 traders

Total Value$138.14

Total Shares6,907

Combined PnL-$53.4

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 97.7¢	$14.5K	$14.3K	+$54.99	89% 1665-205 (1870)
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 97.5¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$15.42	71% 196-82 (278)
IN insidero	Yesavg 98.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$2.4	76% 291-93 (384)
AngryRhino	Yesavg 94¢	$328.08	$342.04	+$13.96	69% 133-59 (192)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 78.9¢	$217.56	$255.1	+$37.54	94% 442-28 (470)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 98¢	$245	$245	+$0	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$167.87	$121.96	-$42.59	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$12.05	$10.18	-$0.84	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$10.94	$5.49	-$5.58	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 22.3¢	$4.67	$0.42	-$4.25	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.23	$0.09	-$0.14	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$14,537.01

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$54.99

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$3,314.91

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$15.42

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$1,178.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$2.4

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$328.08

Value

$342.04

PnL

+$13.96

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$217.56

Value

$255.1

PnL

+$37.54

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$245

Value

$245

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$167.87

Value

$121.96

PnL

-$42.59

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$10.18

PnL

-$0.84

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$5.58

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$4.25

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.14

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.