Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $883 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$883.47

Combined PnL

$-7.1K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 0.3¢

-90% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$853.96

Total Shares341,583

Combined PnL$-7.1K

No2 traders

Total Value$29.52

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.89

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

216 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.3K	$401.87	$-1.9K	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.2K	$164.44	$-1.0K	43% 561-738 (1299)
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 4.3¢	$2.2K	$128.27	$-2.1K	50% 447-446 (893)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$920.11	$55.93	-$864.18	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$444.17	$40.59	-$403.58	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
solwizzo-onXCTR	Yesavg 4.3¢	$380	$25	-$355	67% 347-174 (521)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97¢	$23.86	$24.54	+$0.68	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$132.43	$22.02	-$245.06	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$227.76	$13.89	-$213.87	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$4.77	$4.98	+$0.21	73% 41-15 (56)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$27.39	$1.95	-$25.44	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,271.34

Value

$401.87

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,183.94

Value

$164.44

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,204.73

Value

$128.27

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$920.11

Value

$55.93

PnL

-$864.18

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$444.17

Value

$40.59

PnL

-$403.58

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

solwizzo-onXCTR

Yes

Invested

$380

Value

$25

PnL

-$355

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.86

Value

$24.54

PnL

+$0.68

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.43

Value

$22.02

PnL

-$245.06

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.76

Value

$13.89

PnL

-$213.87

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.21

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.39

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$25.44

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

216 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.