Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$67.9

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,816

Combined PnL+$34.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$838.9

Total Shares4,661

Combined PnL-$101.94

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4510h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aenews2	Noavg 83.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$35.28	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 20.7¢	$964.18	$838.9	-$101.94	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 76.9¢	$554.03	$587.1	+$33.08	38% 20-32 (52)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 81.1¢	$501.41	$504.08	+$2.67	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 78.7¢	$514.51	$491.98	+$15.65	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 78.2¢	$211	$212.29	+$1.29	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
11 11122<$100	Noavg 66¢	$37.64	$42.62	+$8.06	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Noavg 79¢	$31.6	$32.8	+$1	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$19.85	$24.6	+$4.6	39% 965-1508 (2473)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$33.37	$12.07	+$2.94	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
twinna<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.26	$5.32	+$0.03	50% 92-93 (185)

aenews2

Invested

$1,240.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$35.28

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$964.18

Value

$838.9

PnL

-$101.94

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$554.03

Value

$587.1

PnL

+$33.08

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

sbimbg

Invested

$501.41

Value

$504.08

PnL

+$2.67

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$514.51

Value

$491.98

PnL

+$15.65

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$211

Value

$212.29

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

11122<$100

Invested

$37.64

Value

$42.62

PnL

+$8.06

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$32.8

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$4.6

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$33.37

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$2.94

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

twinna<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4510h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.1%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.