Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 97¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$0.36

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 96.9¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,761

Combined PnL+$55.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$55.38

Total Shares1,731

Combined PnL-$55.07

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1580h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 96.9¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$11.92	89% 1665-205 (1870)
probability	Noavg 94.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$22.32	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 95.2¢	$550.92	$560.15	+$9.23	77% 1408-416 (1824)
Ryxon21	Noavg 89¢	$387	$420.91	+$33.91	71% 318-130 (448)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 96¢	$57.69	$58.17	+$0.49	40% 174-265 (439)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$50.88	$52.28	+$1.4	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$21.7	$17.91	-$3.79	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$45.96	$14.88	-$29.11	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$0.21	$12.73	-$22.79	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$9.24	$9.86	+$0.62	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.84	-$0.01	69% 987-450 (1437)

elmcap2

Invested

$5,466.48

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$11.92

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

probability

Invested

$1,162.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$22.32

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$550.92

Value

$560.15

PnL

+$9.23

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Ryxon21

Invested

$387

Value

$420.91

PnL

+$33.91

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$57.69

Value

$58.17

PnL

+$0.49

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$50.88

Value

$52.28

PnL

+$1.4

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.7

Value

$17.91

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.96

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$29.11

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$22.79

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

1580h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.