Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 69¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 4, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Mon, Jan 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

-$88.8

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares22,744

Combined PnL-$66.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,945

Combined PnL-$22.06

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4847h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 66¢	$9.2K	$9.6K	+$349.69	72% 3510-1334 (4844)
LU lug	Noavg 72¢	$687.29	$4.7K	-$410.41	54% 1843-1581 (3424)
EA Eatpraylove	Noavg 68.3¢	$1.0K	$986.4	+$1.6	57% 766-585 (1351)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$520	$630	+$110	36% 398-695 (1093)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$523.35	$463.33	-$60.02	52% 1668-1539 (3207)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$444.5	$411.45	-$33.05	66% 1482-770 (2252)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 34.8¢	$406.94	$367.95	-$38.99	37% 194-334 (528)
10 101456	Noavg 68¢	$187.16	$188.53	+$1.38	53% 143-129 (272)
GE gesst<$100	Noavg 75¢	$87.94	$80.32	-$7.62	52% 188-176 (364)
Tenebrus7<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$53.81	$50.72	-$3.09	73% 2958-1074 (4032)
PMTraderAdam<$100	Noavg 59¢	$10.65	$12.36	+$1.71	77% 830-249 (1079)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$9,199.32

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$349.69

Record

72%

3510-1334 (4844)

lug

Invested

$687.29

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$410.41

Record

54%

1843-1581 (3424)

Eatpraylove

Invested

$1,025

Value

$986.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$520

Value

$630

PnL

+$110

Record

36%

398-695 (1093)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$523.35

Value

$463.33

PnL

-$60.02

Record

52%

1668-1539 (3207)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$444.5

Value

$411.45

PnL

-$33.05

Record

66%

1482-770 (2252)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$406.94

Value

$367.95

PnL

-$38.99

Record

37%

194-334 (528)

101456

Invested

$187.16

Value

$188.53

PnL

+$1.38

Record

53%

143-129 (272)

gesst<$100

Invested

$87.94

Value

$80.32

PnL

-$7.62

Record

52%

188-176 (364)

Tenebrus7<$100

Invested

$53.81

Value

$50.72

PnL

-$3.09

Record

73%

2958-1074 (4032)

PMTraderAdam<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$1.71

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4847h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.3%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.