Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$865.45

Smart Money Entry

13.2¢ → 29.5¢

+123% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,129

Combined PnL+$861.4

No3 traders

Total Value$73.19

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$4.05

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

513h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$345.41	$1.0K	+$704.54	— 3-5 (8)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$147.5	+$143.26	— 0-3 (3)
DG DG-NOCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$213.36	$125.88	-$87.48	— 0-3 (3)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$95.4	$121.69	+$26.29	— 2-0 (2)
SA SaylorMoon<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$57.31	$60.5	+$3.19	0% 0-41 (41)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.06	$18.92	+$17.85	—
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$18.38	$18.08	-$0.31	— 0-2 (2)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.74	$13.08	+$12.34	— 4-3 (7)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$37.11	$9.66	+$36.96	39% 179-277 (456)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.31	$8.26	+$7.94	84% 21-4 (25)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.99	$7.95	+$0.96	43% 17-23 (40)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.84	$4.74	-$0.1	— 2-0 (2)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$345.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$704.54

Record

—

3-5 (8)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$147.5

PnL

+$143.26

Record

—

0-3 (3)

DG-NOCTR

Yes

Invested

$213.36

Value

$125.88

PnL

-$87.48

Record

—

0-3 (3)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.4

Value

$121.69

PnL

+$26.29

Record

—

2-0 (2)

SaylorMoon<$100

Invested

$57.31

Value

$60.5

PnL

+$3.19

Record

0-41 (41)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$17.85

Record

—

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.38

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$0.31

Record

—

0-2 (2)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$13.08

PnL

+$12.34

Record

—

4-3 (7)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.11

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$36.96

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$7.94

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.99

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0.96

Record

43%

17-23 (40)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

2-0 (2)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

513h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.