Sopo: Lucia Bronzetti vs Elizabeth Mandlik

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Elizabeth Mandlik (100%) · Elizabeth Mandlik at 57¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 18

Lucia Bronzetti43¢Elizabeth Mandlik57¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizabeth Mandlik

Consensus Traders

Elizabeth Mandlik 100%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$82.13

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 57.5¢

+40% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

9 of 9 top traders (100%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lucia Bronzetti43%

Elizabeth Mandlik57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizabeth Mandlik9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,030

Combined PnL+$82.13

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41.2¢	$5.5K	$5.9K	+$405.01	53% 1811-1620 (3431)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41.2¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$382.57
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$22.44
65 6512395314597884	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41¢	$820	$830	+$10	50% 3292-3247 (6539)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 53¢	$301.8	$291.39	-$10.41	23% 122-409 (531)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 53¢	$225.25	$206.13	-$19.13
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 46.2¢	$76.55	$85.27	+$8.71
machinelearnedARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 56¢	$296.46	$284.07	-$12.39	39% 513-787 (1300)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 56¢	$192.96	$170.44	-$22.51
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 46¢	$103.5	$113.63	+$10.13
RN1	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 38.9¢	$148.42	$190.65	+$42.23	57% 4029-3048 (7077)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 48.2¢	$206.58	$183.13	+$8.78	42% 111-156 (267)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.9¢	$77.99	$97.7	+$20.41
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 48.2¢	$96.98	$85.43	-$11.64
VE Venusian	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41¢	$120.18	$146.35	+$33.26	31% 385-869 (1254)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 47.9¢	$132.83	$136.83	+$4	56% 3850-3020 (6870)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 47.9¢	$69.17	$82.99	+$13.82
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 50.3¢	$63.65	$53.84	-$9.82
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 54¢	$133.75	$127.98	-$5.77	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 54¢	$85.31	$75	-$10.31
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 48¢	$48.44	$52.98	+$4.54
EU Eulhunter	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 43.9¢	$118.95	$112.46	-$6.49	49% 102-106 (208)
PA pauleta23<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 51.9¢	$20	$20.61	+$0.61	30% 201-472 (673)
PA Pan9X<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 37¢	$12.95	$14.7	+$1.75	48% 667-712 (1379)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 38¢	$10	$11.05	+$1.05	50% 47-47 (94)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 34.9¢	$35.96	$8.91	-$0.36	25% 124-374 (498)
LI Limousin<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 46¢	$2.32	$2.4	+$0.08	30% 375-875 (1250)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$5,490.15

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$405.01

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$3,003.3641.2¢+$382.57

Lucia Bronzetti$2,486.7953¢+$22.44

6512395314597884

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$820

Value

$830

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

3292-3247 (6539)

babybellsARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$301.8

Value

$291.39

PnL

-$10.41

Record

23%

122-409 (531)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$225.2553¢-$19.13

Elizabeth Mandlik$76.5546.2¢+$8.71

machinelearnedARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$296.46

Value

$284.07

PnL

-$12.39

Record

39%

513-787 (1300)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$192.9656¢-$22.51

Elizabeth Mandlik$103.546¢+$10.13

RN1

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$148.42

Value

$190.65

PnL

+$42.23

Record

57%

4029-3048 (7077)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$206.58

Value

$183.13

PnL

+$8.78

Record

42%

111-156 (267)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$77.9945.9¢+$20.41

Lucia Bronzetti$96.9848.2¢-$11.64

Venusian

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$120.18

Value

$146.35

PnL

+$33.26

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$132.83

Value

$136.83

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

3850-3020 (6870)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$69.1747.9¢+$13.82

Lucia Bronzetti$63.6550.3¢-$9.82

FlaznorpARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$133.75

Value

$127.98

PnL

-$5.77

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$85.3154¢-$10.31

Elizabeth Mandlik$48.4448¢+$4.54

Eulhunter

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$118.95

Value

$112.46

PnL

-$6.49

Record

49%

102-106 (208)

pauleta23<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$20

Value

$20.61

PnL

+$0.61

Record

30%

201-472 (673)

Pan9X<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$12.95

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$1.75

Record

48%

667-712 (1379)

glennyorkshire<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$10

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

47-47 (94)

thestingsnake<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$35.96

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$0.36

Record

25%

124-374 (498)

Limousin<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

375-875 (1250)

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

9 of 9 top traders (100%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizabeth Mandlik wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.