Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Leolia Jeanjean, while the market favors Alice Tubello (70%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cali: Leolia Jeanjean vs Alice Tubello

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Leolia Jeanjean (67%) · Leolia Jeanjean at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Leolia Jeanjean30¢Alice Tubello70¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leolia Jeanjean

Consensus Traders

Leolia Jeanjean 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$23.43

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 30¢

-35% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeolia Jeanjean at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leolia Jeanjean

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Alice Tubello 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Leolia Jeanjean30%

Alice Tubello70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leolia Jeanjean8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,677

Combined PnL-$34.28

Alice Tubello4 traders

Total Value$152.28

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$10.85

Leolia Jeanjean — 67%Alice Tubello — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Leolia Jeanjean. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLeolia Jeanjean 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLeolia Jeanjean 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedLeolia Jeanjean 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Leolia Jeanjean 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 47.2¢	$465.1	$443.03	+$14.77	50% 1329-1304 (2633)
VeryLucky888CTR	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 45.4¢	$684.04	$411.31	+$12.26	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 70.1¢	$483.17	$401.99	-$81.18	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 70.1¢	$329.33	$258.5	-$70.83
└ Leolia Jeanjean leg	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 48.2¢	$153.84	$143.49	-$10.35
LI LilybaeumCTR	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 45.2¢	$173.52	$172.71	+$3.03	61% 14367-9292 (23659)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 46.7¢	$180.59	$117.86	-$62.74	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 54.7¢	$60.52	$77.43	+$16.9	54% 6283-5341 (11624)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 65.5¢	$73.18	$61.4	-$8.2	60% 4448-2971 (7419)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 45¢	$28.81	$28.81	+$0	50% 25827-25531 (51358)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 57.7¢	$8.65	$10.65	+$2	65% 5275-2893 (8168)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 46¢	$8.37	$8.19	-$0.18	53% 2579-2259 (4838)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 37.6¢	$7.05	$5.68	-$1.37	53% 791-708 (1499)
VE Venusian<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 52.2¢	$2.66	$2.8	+$0.14	51% 1384-1348 (2732)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Leolia Jeanjeanavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.25	-$0.05	52% 8771-7977 (16748)

MadridTimeCTR

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$465.1

Value

$443.03

PnL

+$14.77

Record

50%

1329-1304 (2633)

VeryLucky888CTR

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$684.04

Value

$411.31

PnL

+$12.26

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$483.17

Value

$401.99

PnL

-$81.18

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

Both legs:

Alice Tubello$329.3370.1¢-$70.83

Leolia Jeanjean$153.8448.2¢-$10.35

LilybaeumCTR

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$173.52

Value

$172.71

PnL

+$3.03

Record

61%

14367-9292 (23659)

FlaznorpCTR

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$180.59

Value

$117.86

PnL

-$62.74

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

Eulhunter<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$60.52

Value

$77.43

PnL

+$16.9

Record

54%

6283-5341 (11624)

thestingsnake<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$73.18

Value

$61.4

PnL

-$8.2

Record

60%

4448-2971 (7419)

sentrioCTR<$100

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$28.81

Value

$28.81

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$8.65

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$2

Record

65%

5275-2893 (8168)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$8.37

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

2579-2259 (4838)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$7.05

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$1.37

Record

53%

791-708 (1499)

Venusian<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

1384-1348 (2732)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Leolia Jeanjean

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8771-7977 (16748)

Research grade

NeutralLeolia Jeanjean at 30%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Leolia Jeanjean

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Alice Tubello 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Leolia Jeanjean. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLeolia Jeanjean 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLeolia Jeanjean 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedLeolia Jeanjean 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Leolia Jeanjean 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leolia Jeanjean wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.