Consensus PnL $287K · win rate 59% (1042–739, n=1781) · PM monthly #877 · holds 219 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$286.5K
Record
1042W / 739L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 1781 settled
Batting Avg
39.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#786
Source
PM monthly #877
Record (90 d)
38/74 · 51%
Trades
338,895
Markets
5,705
Volume
$33.2M
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Top consensus positions
219 in listed consensus markets · 176 of 219 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $30K · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (92% of 51)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $20K · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (84% of 62)
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?No $15K · now 98¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $13K · now 99¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (61% of 38)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $12K · now 98¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (74% of 38)
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No $11K · now 99¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (82% of 17)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $8.3K · now 99¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (85% of 72)
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?No $8.0K · now 98¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
Specialties
1,502 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 58¢- Finance
+3 pts
side won 69% of 335 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 60% of 101 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −2%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 66% of 195 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 51% of 41 at an average 59¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI +13%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 5% of 502)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 38% of 99)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 65% of 130)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 96% of 771)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.