Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$7.1K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 2.1¢

+142% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares639,068

Combined PnL+$7.1K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4898h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

341 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$3.2K	$6.5K	+$3.2K	51% 86-81 (167)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.4K	$4.1K	+$2.7K	43% 1406-1842 (3248)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$216.35	$1.1K	+$833.65	49% 357-367 (724)
CarCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$152.61	$183.13	+$25.43	67% 4174-2038 (6212)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$32.97	$111.57	+$78.6	49% 1837-1904 (3741)
PorxCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$68.89	$87.87	+$18.98	66% 1482-770 (2252)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$24.76	$74.22	+$49.46	26% 351-985 (1336)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$20.74	$54.07	+$33.33	52% 1668-1539 (3207)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yes	$37.67	$37.67	+$37.67	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yes	$30.73	$30.73	+$30.73	57% 16914-12693 (29607)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.81	$20	+$12.19	57% 2563-1947 (4510)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$5.17	$5.17	+$3.5	7% 14-192 (206)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,245.44

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,402.15

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

43%

1406-1842 (3248)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$216.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$833.65

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.61

Value

$183.13

PnL

+$25.43

Record

67%

4174-2038 (6212)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Yes

Invested

$32.97

Value

$111.57

PnL

+$78.6

Record

49%

1837-1904 (3741)

PorxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.89

Value

$87.87

PnL

+$18.98

Record

66%

1482-770 (2252)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.76

Value

$74.22

PnL

+$49.46

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.74

Value

$54.07

PnL

+$33.33

Record

52%

1668-1539 (3207)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.67

Value

$37.67

PnL

+$37.67

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.73

Value

$30.73

PnL

+$30.73

Record

57%

16914-12693 (29607)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$20

PnL

+$12.19

Record

57%

2563-1947 (4510)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$3.5

Record

14-192 (206)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4898h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

341 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.2%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3005.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

3105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.