Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$282.98

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.9¢

+42% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares125,459

Combined PnL+$282.98

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4887h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

231 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$216.31	$446.17	+$229.85	49% 357-367 (724)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$273.42	$297.5	+$24.08	43% 1401-1820 (3221)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$94.04	$122.77	+$28.73	25% 185-564 (749)
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$106.8	$85.01	-$21.79	48% 400-435 (835)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$52.69	+$7.32	49% 1831-1896 (3727)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$31.54	+$6.78	26% 351-985 (1336)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$8.72	$11.57	+$2.85	52% 1666-1538 (3204)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.81	$8.5	+$0.69	57% 2539-1923 (4462)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.94	$4.27	+$0.33	56% 14473-11230 (25703)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$3.78	$3.78	+$3.78	72% 8310-3186 (11496)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.25	$2.45	+$0.2	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.16	+$0.16	33% 6265-12990 (19255)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$216.31

Value

$446.17

PnL

+$229.85

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$273.42

Value

$297.5

PnL

+$24.08

Record

43%

1401-1820 (3221)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$94.04

Value

$122.77

PnL

+$28.73

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.8

Value

$85.01

PnL

-$21.79

Record

48%

400-435 (835)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$52.69

PnL

+$7.32

Record

49%

1831-1896 (3727)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$31.54

PnL

+$6.78

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$2.85

Record

52%

1666-1538 (3204)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.69

Record

57%

2539-1923 (4462)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

14473-11230 (25703)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$3.78

Record

72%

8310-3186 (11496)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

33%

6265-12990 (19255)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4887h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

231 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5101.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5201.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.