Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 49% (307–317, n=624) · was PM monthly #961 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.6K
Record
307W / 317L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 624 settled
Batting Avg
78.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1227
Source
PM monthly #961
Record (90 d)
107/230 · 47%
Trades
361
Markets
702
Volume
$3.2M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 11 on the consensus side (64%)- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes $5.5K · now 34¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $5.3K · now 79¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (52% of 46)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $3.0K · now 46¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (71% of 42)
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No $2.9K · now 56¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (58% of 31)
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $2.0K · now 31¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (61% of 24)
- US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?No $1.2K · now 42¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?No $757 · now 72¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (74% of 43)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes $714 · now 78¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (78% of 47)
Specialties
581 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 48¢- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 51% of 70 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +9%
- Esports
+4 pts
side won 51% of 115 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +4%
- NBA
+22 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +41%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 44% of 165 at an average 49¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 19% of 72)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 45% of 233)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 52% of 226)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 82% of 50)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.