Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 95¢ · $22K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 95.2¢

+12% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares23,019

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$48.5

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$142.5

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

3879h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Noavg 85.7¢	$15.7K	$17.0K	+$1.7K	96% 631-24 (655)
ImJustKen	Noavg 79.5¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$310.44	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
Donkov	Noavg 87.9¢	$504.72	$516.4	+$11.68	71% 968-396 (1364)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 86.4¢	$411.1	$440.46	+$29.36	66% 1107-565 (1672)
ScottyNooo	Noavg 80.7¢	$345.04	$406.99	+$61.95	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
LI lissartter	No	$377.87	$377.87	+$76.05	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Talophex	Noavg 92¢	$230	$237.88	+$7.88	91% 929-95 (1024)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 69¢	$138	$190.3	+$52.3	66% 955-482 (1437)
XAE12Archangel	Noavg 88.4¢	$136.69	$143.05	+$9.74	66% 784-407 (1191)
Gohst	Noavg 36¢	$40	$105.72	+$65.72	49% 738-770 (1508)
CarCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$191	$48.5	-$142.5	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
elmcap2<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.78	$16.92	+$0.38	89% 1665-205 (1870)
PA pako<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.5	$9.52	+$1.02	65% 250-132 (382)

thoodr

Invested

$15,659.59

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

ImJustKen

Invested

$2,120.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$310.44

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Donkov

Invested

$504.72

Value

$516.4

PnL

+$11.68

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$411.1

Value

$440.46

PnL

+$29.36

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

ScottyNooo

Invested

$345.04

Value

$406.99

PnL

+$61.95

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

lissartter

Invested

$377.87

Value

$377.87

PnL

+$76.05

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Talophex

Invested

$230

Value

$237.88

PnL

+$7.88

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$138

Value

$190.3

PnL

+$52.3

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

XAE12Archangel

Invested

$136.69

Value

$143.05

PnL

+$9.74

Record

66%

784-407 (1191)

Gohst

Invested

$40

Value

$105.72

PnL

+$65.72

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$191

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$142.5

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

elmcap2<$100

Invested

$17.78

Value

$16.92

PnL

+$0.38

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

pako<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$1.02

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

3879h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.3%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.