Consensus PnL $515K · win rate 71% (391–156, n=547) · was PM monthly #184 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$515.2K
Record
391W / 156L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 547 settled
Batting Avg
43.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#694
Source
PM monthly #184
Trades
3,991
Markets
746
Volume
$95.0M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 10 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $274K · now 96¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $73K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $48K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $26K · now 96¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (68% of 32)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $18K · now 89¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (66% of 41)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $17K · now 42¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $6.2K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $5.5K · now 14¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
573 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 69¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 85% of 119 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +9%
- Politics
+7 pts
side won 76% of 147 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +6%
- Crypto
+15 pts
side won 83% of 18 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 57% of 122 at an average 61¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 13% of 117)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 44% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 65% of 46)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 98% of 367)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.