Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $40K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$40.2K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 96¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$40.2K

Total Shares41,768

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$57.25

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL-$138.59

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

1358h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 95.9¢	$13.3K	$13.3K	+$14.78	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
tourists	Noavg 84¢	$8.4K	$9.6K	+$1.2K	66% 427-222 (649)
Dropper	Noavg 87¢	$8.7K	$9.6K	+$900	71% 1136-463 (1599)
yen4u	Noavg 91.9¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$136.09	86% 809-136 (945)
WordleAddict	Noavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$321	61% 941-614 (1555)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 96.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$14.33	59% 986-684 (1670)
WA wan123	Noavg 81.4¢	$480.34	$566.6	+$86.26	39% 196-304 (500)
wish-	Noavg 96.6¢	$386.39	$384.19	-$2.2	79% 1176-319 (1495)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Noavg 92¢	$368	$383.24	+$15.96	51% 527-509 (1036)
AV aviato	Noavg 85.8¢	$206.39	$208.56	+$2.17	84% 2440-449 (2889)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$104.47	$34.6	-$69.87	83% 3802-802 (4604)
DragontreeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$91.37	$22.65	-$68.72	58% 1250-888 (2138)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$13,338.11

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$14.78

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

tourists

Invested

$8,400

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

Dropper

Invested

$8,700

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$900

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

yen4u

Invested

$3,022.38

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$136.09

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

WordleAddict

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$321

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$1,038.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$14.33

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

wan123

Invested

$480.34

Value

$566.6

PnL

+$86.26

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

wish-

Invested

$386.39

Value

$384.19

PnL

-$2.2

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Invested

$368

Value

$383.24

PnL

+$15.96

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

aviato

Invested

$206.39

Value

$208.56

PnL

+$2.17

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.47

Value

$34.6

PnL

-$69.87

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

DragontreeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.37

Value

$22.65

PnL

-$68.72

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

1358h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.