Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$118.46

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 84¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,436

Combined PnL-$26.76

Yes7 traders

Total Value$526.69

Total Shares3,292

Combined PnL-$91.7

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HotDogs	Noavg 85.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$28.38	94% 442-28 (470)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 85¢	$854.85	$844.8	-$15.09	85% 311-57 (368)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 82.1¢	$386.23	$384.81	-$1.41	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 18.7¢	$264.49	$288.8	-$87.89	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
FU FulguratorCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$169.83	$159.84	-$9.99	92% 61-5 (66)
JA jaja5050	Noavg 72¢	$95.4	$111.3	+$15.9	63% 182-109 (291)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$23.39	$29.62	+$6.23	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
SB sbimbg<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.8	$16.8	+$2	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$17	$16	-$0.5	66% 955-482 (1437)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$11.78	$12.28	+$0.5	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$10.65	$10.55	-$0.05	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.88	$6.1	+$0.22	67% 751-378 (1129)

HotDogs

Invested

$1,551.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$28.38

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$854.85

Value

$844.8

PnL

-$15.09

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$386.23

Value

$384.81

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$264.49

Value

$288.8

PnL

-$87.89

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

FulguratorCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.83

Value

$159.84

PnL

-$9.99

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

jaja5050

Invested

$95.4

Value

$111.3

PnL

+$15.9

Record

63%

182-109 (291)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.39

Value

$29.62

PnL

+$6.23

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

sbimbg<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$2

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$16

PnL

-$0.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.78

Value

$12.28

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0.22

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.5%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.