OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 95¢ · $25K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$25.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 94.5¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares24,229

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares39,029

Combined PnL$-5.1K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Noavg 89¢	$13.6K	$14.4K	+$831.3	96% 631-24 (655)
yen4u	Noavg 48.4¢	$2.7K	$5.3K	+$2.6K	86% 810-136 (946)
ImJustKen	Noavg 84.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$158.03	53% 3043-2719 (5762)
betwickCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$3.6K	$1.3K	$-2.4K	55% 353-292 (645)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 74.9¢	$1,000	$1.3K	+$262.03	89% 923-118 (1041)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$1.3K	$302.77	-$969.24	61% 1200-768 (1968)
Talophex	Noavg 72¢	$216	$283.5	+$64.5	91% 929-95 (1024)
Mr-KrabsCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$1.1K	$264.97	-$861.16	78% 574-165 (739)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 17.4¢	$415.06	$193.17	-$221.89	59% 986-684 (1670)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$424.62	$137.38	-$287.24	35% 35-65 (100)
0x8712CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$460	$120	-$330	30% 102-237 (339)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$23.61	$26.06	+$2.46	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$23.28	$21.49	-$1.79	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$19.5	$18	-$1.5	71% 969-397 (1366)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$0.94	$1.13	+$0.19	72% 1535-585 (2120)

thoodr

Invested

$13,576.61

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$831.3

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

yen4u

Invested

$2,710.22

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

86%

810-136 (946)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,471.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$158.03

Record

53%

3043-2719 (5762)

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,570.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

Paul973973

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$262.03

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,322.05

Value

$302.77

PnL

-$969.24

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

Talophex

Invested

$216

Value

$283.5

PnL

+$64.5

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Mr-KrabsCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,104.05

Value

$264.97

PnL

-$861.16

Record

78%

574-165 (739)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$415.06

Value

$193.17

PnL

-$221.89

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.62

Value

$137.38

PnL

-$287.24

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

0x8712CTR

Yes

Invested

$460

Value

$120

PnL

-$330

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$23.61

Value

$26.06

PnL

+$2.46

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.28

Value

$21.49

PnL

-$1.79

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18

PnL

-$1.5

Record

71%

969-397 (1366)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.19

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.