Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 64¢ · $24K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
18
Yes 67%
$23.7K
-$968.27
70.3¢ → 63.5¢
-10% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 64%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Late
319h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 41¢ | $7.4K | $7.0K | -$433.82 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
JE Jest55 | Yesavg 74.3¢ | $4.5K | $3.8K | -$647.41 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 tetrase | Yesavg 77.7¢ | $3.2K | $2.6K | -$583.35 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 59.9¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$114.57 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR | Noavg 34.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$90.09 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 Car | Yesavg 68.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$67.66 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 24.7¢ | $740 | $1.1K | +$355 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 cambridgeisaac | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $913.47 | $897.97 | -$22.51 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
 AllByMyseIf | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $792.19 | $862.29 | +$70.1 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
 Tenebrus7CTR | Noavg 28.3¢ | $546.35 | $675.31 | +$128.96 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 71.4¢ | $602 | $640 | +$38 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
BA badatthis | Yesavg 82¢ | $235.51 | $192 | -$43.5 | 65% 2235-1185 (3420) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $237 | $192 | -$45 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 StarMasterCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $175 | $182.5 | +$7.5 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 RelaccsedCTR | Noavg 19¢ | $85.5 | $164.25 | +$78.75 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 64.3¢ | $146.37 | $145.77 | -$0.6 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Porx | Yesavg 59¢ | $117.99 | $127.99 | +$9 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 81.2¢ | $77.15 | $60.76 | -$16.39 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$7,397.34
Value
$7.0K
PnL
-$433.82
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$4,461.33
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$647.41
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
tetraseInvested
$3,218.84
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$583.35
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
paddaaInvested
$1,943.23
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$114.57
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTRInvested
$1,579.38
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$90.09
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
CarInvested
$1,347.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$67.66
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$740
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$355
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
cambridgeisaacInvested
$913.47
Value
$897.97
PnL
-$22.51
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
AllByMyseIfInvested
$792.19
Value
$862.29
PnL
+$70.1
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
Tenebrus7CTRInvested
$546.35
Value
$675.31
PnL
+$128.96
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$602
Value
$640
PnL
+$38
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$235.51
Value
$192
PnL
-$43.5
Record
65%
2235-1185 (3420)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$237
Value
$192
PnL
-$45
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$175
Value
$182.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
RelaccsedCTRInvested
$85.5
Value
$164.25
PnL
+$78.75
Record
56%
1213-967 (2180)
Invested
$146.37
Value
$145.77
PnL
-$0.6
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
PorxInvested
$117.99
Value
$127.99
PnL
+$9
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Invested
$77.15
Value
$60.76
PnL
-$16.39
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.