Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 66¢ · $25K held · ends Dec 1

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 65.5¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares24,921

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares25,880

Combined PnL$-3.7K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

369h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (15 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 65.2¢	$8.9K	$8.8K	-$61.07	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
JE Jest55CTR	Yesavg 54¢	$9.8K	$5.8K	$-3.1K	75% 1028-338 (1366)
paddaa	Noavg 45.8¢	$2.5K	$3.3K	+$824.72	56% 836-645 (1481)
TR troim	Noavg 43¢	$1.7K	$2.6K	+$881.43	36% 397-691 (1088)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 34.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$37.3	38% 567-944 (1511)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 51.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$489.13	57% 1114-837 (1951)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 50¢	$408	$526.32	+$122.4	82% 1758-394 (2152)
StarMaster	Noavg 67.5¢	$401.64	$387	-$14.64	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 58¢	$290	$322.5	+$32.5	77% 830-249 (1079)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 56¢	$310.79	$197.02	-$113.77	58% 1250-888 (2138)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 37.6¢	$188	$177.5	-$10.5	66% 1482-769 (2251)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$139.91	$162.31	+$22.4	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$151.18	$158.67	+$7.49	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$67.56	$71	+$2.44	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
Relaccsed<$100	Noavg 63¢	$62.5	$64.5	+$2	56% 1213-967 (2180)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 59¢	$56.72	$62.01	+$5.77	61% 839-544 (1383)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$42.5	$35.5	-$7	65% 2235-1185 (3420)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$8,862.85

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$61.07

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

Jest55CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,822.69

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

paddaa

Invested

$2,504.84

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$824.72

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

troim

Invested

$1,718.77

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$881.43

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,417.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$37.3

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,576.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$489.13

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$408

Value

$526.32

PnL

+$122.4

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

StarMaster

Invested

$401.64

Value

$387

PnL

-$14.64

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$290

Value

$322.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$310.79

Value

$197.02

PnL

-$113.77

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$188

Value

$177.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.91

Value

$162.31

PnL

+$22.4

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.18

Value

$158.67

PnL

+$7.49

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.56

Value

$71

PnL

+$2.44

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Relaccsed<$100

Invested

$62.5

Value

$64.5

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$56.72

Value

$62.01

PnL

+$5.77

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.5

Value

$35.5

PnL

-$7

Record

65%

2235-1185 (3420)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

369h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (15 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.4%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

148.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.