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12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$9.1

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 64.5¢

-11% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 65%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,682

Combined PnL+$677.62

No12 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares7,018

Combined PnL-$668.52

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

1330h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$676.72	36% 590-1045 (1635)
morito181	Noavg 74.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$256.02	61% 875-556 (1431)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 77.8¢	$1.1K	$912.63	-$203.46	90% 5015-573 (5588)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 68.4¢	$1.2K	$856.52	-$134.47	34% 19138-36780 (55918)
paddaa	Noavg 62.2¢	$273.12	$283.26	+$10.13	57% 867-665 (1532)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 54.7¢	$218.91	$256.02	+$37.11	26% 7287-21050 (28337)
cambridgeisaac	Noavg 83.1¢	$300	$231.06	-$67.14	57% 1131-860 (1991)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 76.5¢	$159.77	$132.79	-$26.97	73% 3011-1098 (4109)
GollumGekko	Noavg 74.5¢	$149.52	$128.41	-$20.1	68% 2112-994 (3106)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$75.09	$54.65	-$0.44	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 73.6¢	$137.4	$24.2	-$9.74	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
JO JokerTheClown<$100	Noavg 52¢	$14.87	$18.3	+$3.43	51% 4155-4024 (8179)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 68¢	$94.32	$13.54	-$0.85	40% 6508-9755 (16263)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$6.2	$7.1	+$0.9	47% 112-127 (239)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,321.81

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$676.72

Record

36%

590-1045 (1635)

morito181

Invested

$1,978.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$256.02

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,108.96

Value

$912.63

PnL

-$203.46

Record

90%

5015-573 (5588)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,214.84

Value

$856.52

PnL

-$134.47

Record

34%

19138-36780 (55918)

paddaa

Invested

$273.12

Value

$283.26

PnL

+$10.13

Record

57%

867-665 (1532)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$218.91

Value

$256.02

PnL

+$37.11

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

cambridgeisaac

Invested

$300

Value

$231.06

PnL

-$67.14

Record

57%

1131-860 (1991)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$159.77

Value

$132.79

PnL

-$26.97

Record

73%

3011-1098 (4109)

GollumGekko

Invested

$149.52

Value

$128.41

PnL

-$20.1

Record

68%

2112-994 (3106)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$75.09

Value

$54.65

PnL

-$0.44

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$137.4

Value

$24.2

PnL

-$9.74

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

JokerTheClown<$100

Invested

$14.87

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$3.43

Record

51%

4155-4024 (8179)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$94.32

Value

$13.54

PnL

-$0.85

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

47%

112-127 (239)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 65%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

1330h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.5%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.