Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 65¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$27.7

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 64.5¢

-12% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 65%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,944

Combined PnL+$336.62

No11 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,854

Combined PnL-$364.31

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

1318h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$335.72	36% 585-1035 (1620)
morito181	Noavg 74.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$256.02	61% 862-554 (1416)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$10.02	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.5¢	$851.32	$870.45	-$45.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.8¢	$474.48	$462.68	+$55.08
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 77.8¢	$1.1K	$998.19	-$110.77	90% 4744-556 (5300)
paddaa	Noavg 62.2¢	$273.12	$283.26	+$10.13	57% 865-662 (1527)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 54.7¢	$218.91	$280.02	+$61.11	27% 6898-18905 (25803)
cambridgeisaac	Noavg 83.1¢	$300	$252.72	-$47.28	57% 1130-857 (1987)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 76.5¢	$158.73	$145.24	-$13.49	73% 2999-1092 (4091)
GollumGekko	Noavg 74.5¢	$149.52	$140.45	-$9.07	68% 2104-988 (3092)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$75.09	$58.65	+$3.56	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 73.6¢	$137.4	$26.47	-$7.47	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
JO JokerTheClown<$100	Noavg 52¢	$14.87	$20.02	+$5.15	51% 4143-4010 (8153)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 62¢	$16.16	$16	-$0.16	15% 498-2922 (3420)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$6.2	$7.1	+$0.9	49% 105-111 (216)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,925.21

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$335.72

Record

36%

585-1035 (1620)

morito181

Invested

$1,978.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$256.02

Record

61%

862-554 (1416)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,670.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.02

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Both legs:

No$851.3268.5¢-$45.06

Yes$474.4830.8¢+$55.08

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,108.96

Value

$998.19

PnL

-$110.77

Record

90%

4744-556 (5300)

paddaa

Invested

$273.12

Value

$283.26

PnL

+$10.13

Record

57%

865-662 (1527)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$218.91

Value

$280.02

PnL

+$61.11

Record

27%

6898-18905 (25803)

cambridgeisaac

Invested

$300

Value

$252.72

PnL

-$47.28

Record

57%

1130-857 (1987)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$158.73

Value

$145.24

PnL

-$13.49

Record

73%

2999-1092 (4091)

GollumGekko

Invested

$149.52

Value

$140.45

PnL

-$9.07

Record

68%

2104-988 (3092)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$75.09

Value

$58.65

PnL

+$3.56

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$137.4

Value

$26.47

PnL

-$7.47

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

JokerTheClown<$100

Invested

$14.87

Value

$20.02

PnL

+$5.15

Record

51%

4143-4010 (8153)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$16

PnL

-$0.16

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

105-111 (216)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 65%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

1318h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.5%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.