Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 26¢ · $9K held · ends Dec 1

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$842.13

Smart Money Entry

23¢ → 25.5¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares24,241

Combined PnL+$814.02

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,607

Combined PnL+$28.11

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

704h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
siickCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$352.03	57% 768-580 (1348)
eightpenguinsCTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$233.23	52% 304-281 (585)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 22.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$160.04	60% 407-274 (681)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 75.7¢	$761.63	$740	-$21.62	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$2.9K	$726.13	-$0.43	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.7¢	$385.49	$415.16	+$4.93
└ No leg	Noavg 76.4¢	$319.06	$310.97	-$5.36
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$612.83	$636.4	+$23.57	38% 20-32 (52)
BR browne	Noavg 67.8¢	$526.23	$573.97	+$43.86	71% 173-70 (243)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$434.7	$451.42	+$16.72	68% 2074-958 (3032)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 74.8¢	$385.3	$381.21	-$4.09	66% 487-255 (742)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 22.2¢	$243.99	$278.64	+$34.65	38% 567-944 (1511)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$1.1K	$268.88	-$3.76	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
classified	Noavg 76.8¢	$224.1	$234.06	+$9.96	58% 844-614 (1458)
MEPPCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$84.85	$79	-$5.85	64% 633-352 (985)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.3¢	$65.04	$68.42	+$3.39	56% 836-645 (1481)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,478.55

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$352.03

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

eightpenguinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,263.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$233.23

Record

52%

304-281 (585)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,154.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$160.04

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$761.63

Value

$740

PnL

-$21.62

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

lissartterARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,936.24

Value

$726.13

PnL

-$0.43

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

Yes$385.4923.7¢+$4.93

No$319.0676.4¢-$5.36

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$612.83

Value

$636.4

PnL

+$23.57

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

browne

Invested

$526.23

Value

$573.97

PnL

+$43.86

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$434.7

Value

$451.42

PnL

+$16.72

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$385.3

Value

$381.21

PnL

-$4.09

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$243.99

Value

$278.64

PnL

+$34.65

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,050.06

Value

$268.88

PnL

-$3.76

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

classified

Invested

$224.1

Value

$234.06

PnL

+$9.96

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

MEPPCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.85

Value

$79

PnL

-$5.85

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.04

Value

$68.42

PnL

+$3.39

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

704h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$277.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

377.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.