Consensus PnL $143K · win rate 43% (119–160, n=279) · was PM monthly #987 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$142.7K
Record
119W / 160L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 279 settled
Batting Avg
47.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2043
Source
PM monthly #987 + pinned
Trades
14,414
Markets
508
Volume
$4.1M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $37K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $28K · now 71¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $28K · now 70¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $20K · now 68¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $14K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $8.5K · now 56¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (59% of 34)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $8.4K · now 56¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $6.7K · now 73¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
Specialties
336 settled consensus markets · held side won 33% at an average entry of 31¢- Elections
+8 pts
side won 45% of 42 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +19%
- Finance
+16 pts
side won 46% of 13 · avg entry 30¢
ROI +29%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 55% of 53 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 4% of 57 at an average 4¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 61%(won 1% of 205)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 28% of 18)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 71% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 98% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.