Consensus PnL $1.4M · win rate 57% (277–208, n=485) · PM monthly #239 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.4M
Record
277W / 208L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 485 settled
Batting Avg
63.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1338
Source
PM monthly #239
Trades
1,066
Markets
810
Volume
$65.4M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 9 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $45K · now 65¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $20K · now 99¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $6.8K · now 33¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (76% of 38)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No $1.1K · now 86¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (41% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $895 · now 35¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (69% of 38)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $661 · now 35¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No $506 · now 10¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes $108 · now 10¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
516 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 43¢- Politics
+13 pts
side won 63% of 81 · avg entry 50¢
ROI −5%
- Crypto
+19 pts
side won 50% of 16 · avg entry 31¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 37% of 104 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 35% of 54 at an average 39¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 10% of 204)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 54% of 93)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 72% of 118)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 98% of 101)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.